高效液相色谱法测定青贮饲料桑中的乳酸、乙酸和丙酸含量条件探讨

本文应用高效液相色谱法（HPLC）对青贮饲料桑中的乳酸、乙酸和丙酸含量测定进行了研究。通过对色谱柱、流动相、流速及样品处理条件进行优化，建立了一种应用HPLC法同时测定青贮饲料桑中乳酸、乙酸和丙酸含量的方法。研究结果表明：乳酸、乙酸和丙酸在一定浓度下具有良好的线性关系，且相关系数R2均大于0.999，加标回收率为98.35% ~ 104.24%，标准品中回收率和精密度试验相对标准偏差（RSD）为0.01%~0.58%，表明该方法准确性较好。3种物质检出限为4.928 ~ 9.489 mg/L，适用于青贮饲料桑中有机酸的定量检测。 [关键词] 高效液相色谱（HPLC）|青贮饲料桑|乳酸|乙酸|丙酸     

基于距离相关系数和KNN回归模型的森林蓄积量估测研究

【目的】探究Landsat8 OLI数据和KNN算法在森林蓄积量估测中的潜力。【方法】以湖南省湘潭县为研究区,采用Landsat8 OLI数据和同时期的二类调查数据,通过距离相关系数筛选特征,分别采用线性回归模型(MLR)、K-近邻模型(KNN)、距离加权KNN模型(DW-KNN)和优化欧式KNN模型(FW-KNN)对森林蓄积量进行估测。使用十折交叉方法进行精度检验,对检验结果进行对比分析。【结果】3种KNN模型的估测结果均高于传统的线性模型,并且在3种KNN模型中,FW-KNN算法效果最好,决定系数达到0.69,为3种模型中最高;3种KNN模型中,本研究优化欧氏距离KNN模型的估测精度最高,其均方根误差为30.3%,相比于传统KNN模型的均方根误差降低了5.1%,相比于DW-KNN模型降低了3.3%。【结论】采用DW-KNN蓄积量估测结果明显优于其他两种模型,说明通过特征与蓄积量的相关性优化样本间的距离是一种可行的KNN优化方法。     

基于实物期权法的林业投资项目价值评估

当前林业投资项目不再局限于单纯的木材收益，开始将碳汇收益也纳入到项目价值中。而木材和碳汇的价格波动在增加了项目不确定性的同时，对项目价值也产生了一定影响。传统价值评估方法只能评估出项目的静态价值，对于不确定性带来的动态价值无法准确反映。因此，本研究以高峰林场裸地造林项目为例，根据价格波动规律对木材与碳汇的未来价格分别提出了合理假设，并利用Black-Scholes期权定价模型对项目价值进行了评估。通过对评估结果的分析，论证了实物期权法应用于林业投资项目价值评估的可行性及必要性，促进了实物期权法在林业中的进一步发展。     

Exploring connectivity between spawning and nursery areas of Mullus barbatus (L., 1758) in the Mediterranean through a dispersal model

Connectivity between spawning and nursery areas plays a major role in determining the spatial structure of fish populations and the boundaries of stock units. Here, the potential effects of surface current on a red mullet population in the Central Mediterranean were simulated using a physical oceanographic model. Red mullet larvae were represented as Lagrangian drifters released in known spawning areas of the Strait of Sicily (SoS), which represents one of the most productive demersal fishing‐grounds of the Mediterranean. To consider the effect of inter‐annual variability of oceanographic patterns, numerical simulations were performed for the spawning seasons from 1999 to 2012. The main goal was to explore connectivity between population subunits, in terms of spawning and nursery areas, inhabiting the northern (Sicilian‐Maltese) and southern (African) continental shelves of the SoS. The numerical simulations revealed a certain degree of connectivity between the Sicilian–Maltese and the African sides of the SoS. Connectivity is present in both directions, but it is stronger from the Sicilian–Maltese spawning areas to the African nurseries owing to the marine circulation features of the region. However, because the majority of the larvae are transported to areas unsuitable for settlement or outside the SoS, the dispersal process is characterized by a strong loss of potential settlers born in the spawning areas. These results are in agreement with the low genetic heterogeneity reported for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and support the existence of a metapopulation structure of red mullet in the SoS and the adjacent areas.     

论桑树病虫害与蚕病危害的关系

受管理理念的影响，桑树肥培管理工作存在一定的问题，加剧蚕病的扩散和蔓延，降低桑树 和蚕茧的生产质量，造成整体的经济效益不高。为此，本文深入分析桑树病虫害与蚕病危害的关系， 并提出防治的措施，以供参考。     

Variability in the performance of juvenile Chinook salmon is explained primarily by when and where they resided in estuarine habitats

Estuarine habitats provide rearing opportunities for the juvenile life stage of anadromous fishes. Because survival is positively correlated with juvenile performance, these estuarine habitats play an important role in population abundance and productivity. To provide information for the recovery of several depressed stocks of Chinook salmon in the Columbia River Basin, we sought to identify the factors that explain variability in performance. Using otolith‐derived estimates of juvenile somatic growth rate as an index of recent performance, we observed a negative nonlinear relationship between growth rate and day of year, and a decreasing and increasing trend of growth rate over the 8 years of this study and distance from the river mouth respectively. Using a generalised linear modelling approach, we found that variability in juvenile somatic growth rate was best explained by where and when individuals were collected, their body size, contaminant loads, stock of origin, and whether a fish was hatchery produced or unmarked. Lastly, we argue that a considerable improvement to the growth rate of juveniles in estuarine habitats is physiologically possible. The results of this 8‐year study provide a baseline of the performance of juvenile Chinook salmon to evaluate habitat restoration programs and to compare against future anthropogenic conditions.     

An assessment of carcass counting surveys with increasing time lapse following a simulated fish kill on a small upland stream

A simulated fish kill was conducted on a small upland stream in Northern Ireland by planting out hatchery‐produced brown trout Salmo trutta L. carcasses of various size categories. Standard, post‐fish kill, assessment walkover surveys were conducted over time intervals to determine the number of carcasses visible. The sample variance between individual surveyors was generally low, with good agreement between the observed counts for the three, discrete, size fractions of fish up to 72 hr after the simulated fish kill. Despite low discharge rates, shallow water and good accessibility to the experimental stream, only 52% of the small category fish (<8 cm L_F) were recorded 4 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. Larger carcasses (>17 cm L_F) were more visible, and >90% were detected 48 hr after the start of the simulated fish kill. After 96 hr, all size fractions of carcasses had reduced significantly, and the variability between replicate surveys increased markedly.     

西藏鱼类增殖放流初报

西藏土著鱼类生长缓慢、性成熟晚并对环境变化高度敏感。近年来,受过度捕捞、水利工程建设等人类活动的影响,西藏渔业资源面临越来越大的压力。开展增殖放流活动是恢复当地渔业资源和生态平衡的重要手段。本文介绍了西藏鱼类增殖放流概况、苗种来源、放流实施、效果评估情况,分析了目前存在的基础研究不足、苗种来源不稳定、缺乏技术规范、效果评估有待加强等问题。提出了加强增殖放流基础设施建设和基础理论研究、建立西藏鱼类增殖放流与效果评估技术规范、重视放流后的管理与评估工作、加强专业技术人才队伍建设的建议。     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.